29th Jun 2011 - Half glass empty or half glass full?
I don’t know how everyone else feels out there. I’m interested to know your thoughts. We have all noticed recently that there are lots of tit-bits of positive economic activity shining through a quagmire of press driven negative reporting. My take on this is quite simple. If only we all gave more thought to the implications of economic data instead of the sentiments conveyed by subjective reporting, we all might feel a lot more positive about our prospects. We are all wired differently. I for one am a glass half full thinker. Others are doom mongers who would have us feel as they do. Which camp are you in?
Let’s take one of todays reports, “Graduates face a gloomy period”, was reported in one paper. In short it reports the number of Grads applying per vacancy has increased to 82 its highest level since 2008, when it was 31. There was a glimmer of hope in this report in that it states the Association of Graduate Recruiters has predicted graduate vacancies rising by 2.6 per cent this year and that wages for entry level candidates would marginally increase.
Let’s take this apart. We all know that the amount of graduate vacancies was always going to drop as the economy and businesses within it recalibrated to compete in the ‘new world’, the post crash economy. The metamorphosed landscape is set to carry us through the next twenty years. It is more robust, better geared to grow in the future and above all more self aware.
I look at this report and think there are many positives that come out of this. First and foremost we have to look at the most obvious signal this gives out and compare this against the reports which state that we are in for a choppy recovery. For me, any slight increase in Graduate uptake and any upward increase in salaries offered is extremely positive news. I can’t stress how important this is. I say this because we all underestimate what this small piece of information means. Graduate recruitment is always the sensitive spot with regards to the health of an economy. The economy catches a cold and graduate recruitment is frozen, salaries drop etc. There is then a time lag between re-evaluation and the shoots of economic spring.
Graduate recruitment only shows signs of increasing when there is a deep felt belief that the economy will improve significantly enough for businesses, for them to think about investing into Graduate talent which is often risky due to the financial aspect of training a grad and the turnover at this end of the market. Secondly and as important is the fact that the usual supply-demand curve, where demand for vacancies increases and supply of vacancies decreases resulting in depressed salaries, has bucked the trend. We are in fact at a junction whereby hiring firms once again value the importance of attracting the top talent. These are extremely positive bits of news.
It’s a world full of various thoughts; what’s yours?
